Clinical diagnosis of severe COVID-19: A derivation and validation of a prediction rule.

BACKGROUND: The widespread coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has led to high morbidity and mortality. Therefore, early risk identification of critically ill patients remains crucial. AIM: To develop predictive rules at the time of admission to identify COVID-19 patients who might require intensive care unit (ICU) care. METHODS: This retrospective study included a total of 361 patients with confirmed COVID-19 by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction between January 19, 2020, and March 14, 2020 in Shenzhen Third People's Hospital. Multivariate logistic regression was applied to develop the predictive model. The performance of the predictive model was externally validated and evaluated based on a dataset involving 126 patients from the Wuhan Asia General Hospital between December 2019 and March 2020, by area under the receiver operating curve (AUROC), goodness-of-fit and the performance matrix including the sensitivity, specificity, and precision. A nomogram was also used to visualize the model. RESULTS: Among the patients in the derivation and validation datasets, 38 and 9 participants (10.5% and 2.54%, respectively) developed severe COVID-19, respectively. In univariate analysis, 21 parameters such as age, sex (male), smoker, body mass index (BMI), time from onset to admission (> 5 d), asthenia, dry cough, expectoration, shortness of breath, asthenia, and Rox index < 18 (pulse oxygen saturation, SpO2)/(FiO2 × respiratory rate, RR) showed positive correlations with severe COVID-19. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, only six parameters including BMI [odds ratio (OR) 3.939; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.409-11.015; P = 0.009], time from onset to admission (≥ 5 d) (OR 7.107; 95%CI: 1.449-34.849; P = 0.016), fever (OR 6.794; 95%CI: 1.401-32.951; P = 0.017), Charlson index (OR 2.917; 95%CI: 1.279-6.654; P = 0.011), PaO2/FiO2 ratio (OR 17.570; 95%CI: 1.117-276.383; P = 0.041), and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (OR 3.574; 95%CI: 1.048-12.191; P = 0.042) were found to be independent predictors of COVID-19. These factors were found to be significant risk factors for severe patients confirmed with COVID-19. The AUROC was 0.941 (95%CI: 0.901-0.981) and 0.936 (95%CI: 0.886-0.987) in both datasets. The calibration properties were good. CONCLUSION: The proposed predictive model had great potential in severity prediction of COVID-19 in the ICU. It assisted the ICU clinicians in making timely decisions for the target population.

Monitoring bronchoalveolar lavage with electrical impedance tomography: first experience in a patient with COVID-19.

OBJECTIVE: Patients with the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) often have airway secretions that severely compromise ventilation. This study investigates electrical impedance tomography (EIT) monitoring of a therapeutic bronchoalveolar lavage (BAL) in a patient with COVID-19. APPROACH: A patient with COVID-19 developed acute respiratory distress syndrome requiring mechanical ventilation. He received regional BAL to remove mucus in the small airways (20 ml × 5). Regional ventilation changes before BAL, 30 min after and in the following days, were monitored with EIT. MAIN RESULTS: Regional ventilation worsened shortly after BAL and improved in the following days. The improvement of the oxygenation did not exactly match the ventilation improvement, which indicated a possible ventilation/perfusion mismatch. SIGNIFICANCE: Therapeutic BAL might improve regional ventilation for COVID-19 and EIT could be a useful tool at the bedside to monitor the ventilation treatment of COVID-19.

Importance of respiratory airway management as well as psychological and rehabilitative treatments to COVID-19 patients.

The clinical therapy for severe 2019 coronavirus disease (i.e., COVID-19) sufferers is relatively challenging. Herein, the processes involving salvage of a critical COVID-19 patient were retrospectively analyzed. The condition of an obese female critical COVID-19 sufferer progressively worsened in the initial period after admission. According to her symptoms and examination reports, endotracheal intubation and mechanical ventilation were timely conducted and meanwhile high-dose sedatives and analgesics were administrated. In the later therapeutic phase, however, sedative and analgesic dosages were gradually reduced, and psychological and rehabilitative therapies were conducted, concomitantly with enhancement of airway care to facilitate sputum expectoration. Eventually, the endotracheal tube was feasibly removed after intubation for 18 days and subsequently replaced with noninvasive ventilation and a high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy. Intensive airway care alongside psychological and rehabilitative therapies can shorten the mechanical ventilation time and improve the prognosis of COVID-19 sufferers.